Until recently, Washington's per capita personal income continued to grow at a faster rate than DSHS medical programs per capita expenditure growth rate.
- For SFY 05-08, DSHS medical programs per capita costs grew an average of 2.9% per year. Washington's per capita personal income grew an average of 5.4% per year.
- For SFY 09-11, DSHS medical programs per capita costs are forecasted to increase at a faster rate (3.2%) than Washington's per capita personal income (1.4%).
Current and future DSHS medical programs costs are caseload-driven. For SFY 2009, 72% of the 8.2% forecasted growth in total expenditures for DSHS medical programs is due to caseload increases versus an increase in per capita costs. For SFY 2010, 68% of the 7.1% forecasted growth in total expenditures will be due to caseload increases. This is in contrast to SFY 2007 when 97% of the 2.6% increase in the growth of total expenditures was due to an increase in per capita costs (see the graph displayed on the DSHSTotExpGrth tab to the left).
Children account for a majority of the growth in DSHS medical programs caseload, but not for its costs growth. Although the Children medical eligibility group (MEG) caseload is forecasted to grow an average of 6.7% for SFY 09-11, average per capita costs growth for this MEG during the same period is 0.6%. The average growth of the Elderly MEG caseload is 1.7% for SFY 09-11, with a 2.4% average per capita costs growth. The Disabled MEG is forecasted to have an average 3.5% caseload growth, with an average growth in per capita costs of 4.1% for SFY 09-11. The average growth in per capita costs for the Family MEG during the SFY 09-11 period is 2.1%, with an average caseload growth of 2.9%.
DSHS per capita costs growth remains lower than the growth in per capita national health expenditures (NHE). The growth of DSHS medical program's spending was less than national per capita medical spending during the SFY 05-07 period (see the graph displayed on the DSHS+NHE PerCapCostsGrth tab to the left). This trend is projected to continue during SFY 09-11.